Milltown · Analysis updated 22:54 UTC
Warrenpoint Town vs Armagh City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Warrenpoint Town and 1.13 for Armagh City, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Warrenpoint Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Warrenpoint Town or Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–07.9%
Why the model likes this
Armagh City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warrenpoint Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Warrenpoint Town and 1.13 for Armagh City, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Warrenpoint Town
Armagh City
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.