Milltown · Analysis updated 12:45 UTC
Warrenpoint Town vs Armagh City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Warrenpoint Town and 0.90 for Armagh City, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Warrenpoint Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Warrenpoint Town win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Warrenpoint Town home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Armagh City away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Warrenpoint Town
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-2 (L)
Armagh City
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 2-0 Armagh City (Championship)
- 2026-03-28T15:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 0-0 Armagh City (Championship)
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 5-1 Armagh City (Championship)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 2-0 Armagh City (Championship)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 3-5 Armagh City (Championship)
- 2024-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 0-3 Armagh City (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 2-2 Armagh City (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2021-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · Warrenpoint Town 1-0 Armagh City (Friendlies Clubs)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Warrenpoint Town win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.