Koning Willem II Stadion · Analysis updated 05:00 UTC
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Willem II and 3.25 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws roughly 24% of the time.
Model pick
Fortuna Sittard to Win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–46.5%
- 0–36.4%
- 0–25.9%
Why the model likes this
Fortuna Sittard away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Sittard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 11% / 13% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Willem II and 3.25 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Willem II
Fortuna Sittard
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apoel Nicosia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Metz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.