Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra · Analysis updated 23:55 UTC
XV de Piracicaba vs União São João Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for XV de Piracicaba and 1.32 for União São João, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives União São João the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
União São João to Win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.6%
- 1–09.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates União São João to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 20% / 29% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for XV de Piracicaba and 1.32 for União São João, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Model confidence
União São João to Win is the headline pick at 52% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
XV de Piracicaba
União São João
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.