Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra · Analysis updated 10:57 UTC
XV de Piracicaba vs União São João Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for XV de Piracicaba and 1.25 for União São João, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives União São João the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União São João win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
XV de Piracicaba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União São João away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União São João to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 22% / 30% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for XV de Piracicaba and 1.25 for União São João, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–010.1%
Recent form
XV de Piracicaba
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 0-2 (L)
União São João
- 2026-08-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Piracicaba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Paulista table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | São José EC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | União São João | 14 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| 3 | Primavera SP | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Grêmio Prudente | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | EC São Bernardo | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Noroeste | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Bandeirante SP | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Comercial | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Santo André | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Paulista | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | XV de Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marília | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Oeste | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | São Caetano | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União São João win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.