Estadio de Mendizorroza · Referee Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Alaves vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alaves and 0.82 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Alaves or Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.7%
Why the model likes this
Alaves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 2.30 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 2.70 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 3.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.67 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 2.15 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 3.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.38 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 6.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 5.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 11.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.03 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 2.35 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.55 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
Getafe
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-05-18T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2023-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2022-02-26T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2021-12-11T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2021-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2020-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.