Estadio Mendizorrotza · Referee M. Orellana · Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Alaves vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alaves and 0.82 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Alaves home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.55 | 60.3% | 63.0% | 1.59 | +2.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.11 | 84.9% | 87.5% | 1.14 | +2.6 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.9% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 66.4% | 68.6% | 1.46 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.6% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.2% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.4% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -1.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 6.25 | 15.1% | 12.5% | 8.00 | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.35 | 39.7% | 37.0% | 2.70 | -2.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.70 | 34.6% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
Getafe
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-05-18T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2023-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2022-02-26T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2021-12-11T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2021-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2020-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.