Alaves vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Alaves and 0.82 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Alaves or Draw

72.6% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.08 – 0.82

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Alaves win41%

Draw31%

Getafe win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–016.2%
0–015.0%
1–113.2%
0–112.3%
2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Alaves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Odds comparison

Indicative prices for the main markets.

Market	Selection	Odds	Bookmaker
Match Result	Home	2.30	10Bet
Match Result	Draw	2.70	10Bet
Match Result	Away	3.75	10Bet
Goals	Over 1.5	1.67	10Bet
Goals	Under 1.5	2.15	10Bet
Goals	Over 2.5	3.00	10Bet
Goals	Under 2.5	1.38	10Bet
Goals	Over 3.5	6.25	10Bet
Goals	Under 3.5	1.11	10Bet
Goals	Over 0.5	1.15	10Bet
Goals	Under 0.5	5.25	10Bet
Goals	Over 4.5	11.00	10Bet
Goals	Under 4.5	1.03	10Bet
BTTS	Yes	2.35	10Bet
BTTS	No	1.55	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Draw	1.25	10Bet
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.40	10Bet
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.57	10Bet

Recent form

Alaves

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)

Getafe

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Monaco · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
2025-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
2025-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
2024-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
2024-05-18T19:00:00.000Z · Alaves 1-0 Getafe (La Liga)
2023-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · Alaves 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
2022-02-26T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 2-2 Getafe (La Liga)
2021-12-11T15:15:00.000Z · Alaves 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
2021-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
2020-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Alaves 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.