Stadion Woudestein · Referee Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.29 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior to Win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–06.1%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Excelsior and 1.29 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2026-01-10T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-5 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-14T20:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 4-5 PSV Eindhoven (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-04-02T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-13T20:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-3 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-04-08T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2019-03-02T18:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2018-12-07T19:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.