Stadion Woudestein · Referee M. Nagtegaal · Analysis updated 19:32 UTC
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.24 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior to Win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Excelsior and 1.24 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Excelsior to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.