Stadion Woudestein · Referee Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.40 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Excelsior home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PSV Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–15.8%
Recent form
Excelsior
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 3-0 (W)
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2026-01-10T19:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-5 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2025-01-14T20:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 4-5 PSV Eindhoven (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-04-02T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2024-01-13T20:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-3 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2023-04-08T18:00:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-4 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2022-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · Excelsior 1-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2019-03-02T18:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
- 2018-12-07T19:45:00.000Z · Excelsior 0-6 PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.