Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.25 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.25 for Urawa, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws roughly 14% of the time.

Model pick

Machida Zelvia to Win

85.9% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

4.25 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Machida Zelvia win86%

Draw8%

Urawa win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

14%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals88%

Over 3.5 goals77%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

4–16.9%
3–16.5%
5–15.9%
4–05.6%
3–05.2%

Why the model likes this

Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.25 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.25 for Urawa, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Machida Zelvia

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)

Urawa

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.