Machida GION Stadium · Analysis updated 01:33 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.25 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.25 for Urawa, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws roughly 14% of the time.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia to Win
85.9% probability
Expected goals
4.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 5–15.9%
- 4–05.6%
- 3–05.2%
Why the model likes this
Machida Zelvia home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.25 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.25 for Urawa, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-2 (D)
Urawa
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kawasaki Frontale | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mito Hollyhock | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Tokyo Verdy | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Tokyo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Urawa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.