Machida GION Stadium · Referee Hiroki Kasahara, Japan · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.25 expected goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.25 for Urawa, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia win
85.9% probability
Expected goals
4.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Machida Zelvia home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 5–15.9%
- 4–05.6%
- 3–05.2%
Recent form
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
Urawa
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 3-1 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2026-05-22T10:30:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-0 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2026-03-22T07:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-1 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2025-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 0-0 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2025-04-13T05:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 0-2 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2024-08-31T09:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-2 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2024-05-26T07:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 2-1 Urawa (J1 League)
- 2015-11-11T10:00:00.000Z · Machida Zelvia 1-7 Urawa (Emperor Cup)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Kashima | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machida Zelvia win, at 85.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.