Skopje vs Struga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Skopje and 1.69 for Struga, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Struga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Struga to Win

55.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.91 – 1.69

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Skopje win20%

Draw24%

Struga win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–112.6%
1–111.4%
0–210.6%
1–29.7%
0–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Skopje home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Struga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Skopje and 1.69 for Struga, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.30	71.4%	73.6%	1.36	+2.2
BTTS	No	1.83	49.6%	51.3%	1.95	+1.7
Double Chance	Home/Draw	2.10	43.2%	44.3%	2.26	+1.1
Goals	Under 2.5	1.83	50.9%	51.8%	1.93	+0.9
Match Result	Away	1.65	55.0%	55.8%	1.79	+0.8
Match Result	Home	4.60	19.7%	20.2%	4.95	+0.5
Double Chance	Home/Away	1.20	75.7%	76.0%	1.32	+0.3
Goals	Over 2.5	1.90	49.1%	48.2%	2.07	-0.9
Match Result	Draw	3.60	25.2%	24.1%	4.15	-1.1
Double Chance	Draw/Away	1.12	81.1%	79.9%	1.25	-1.2
BTTS	Yes	1.80	50.4%	48.7%	2.05	-1.7
Goals	Over 3.5	3.25	28.6%	26.4%	3.79	-2.2

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Skopje

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkendija · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 1-0 (W)

Struga

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
2023-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
2022-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-3 Struga (First League)
2022-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (First League)
2021-12-08T12:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-0 Struga (First League)
2021-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (First League)
2019-05-18T14:30:00.000Z · Skopje 1-0 Struga (Second League)
2019-03-23T13:30:00.000Z · Skopje 0-0 Struga (Second League)
2018-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (Second League)

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sileks	3	2	1	0	9	7
2	Tikveš	3	2	0	1	8	6
3	Shkendija	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Struga	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Shkëndija Haraçinë	3	1	1	1	-2	4
6	Bregalnica Štip	2	1	0	1	2	3
7	Vardar Skopje	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	Aresimi	3	1	0	2	-7	3
9	Skopje	3	0	1	2	-6	1
10	Bashkimi Kumanovo	3	0	0	3	-12	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.