· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Skopje vs Struga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Skopje and 1.69 for Struga, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Struga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Struga win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Skopje home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Struga away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 71.4% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 49.6% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +1.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.10 | 43.2% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 50.9% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.65 | 55.0% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 19.7% | 20.2% | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.7% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.1% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 81.1% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.4% | 48.7% | 2.05 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.25 | 28.6% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Skopje
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aresimi · 0-0 (D)
Struga
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda Valandovo · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bregalnica Štip · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
- 2023-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
- 2022-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-1 Struga (First League)
- 2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-3 Struga (First League)
- 2022-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (First League)
- 2021-12-08T12:00:00.000Z · Skopje 1-0 Struga (First League)
- 2021-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (First League)
- 2019-05-18T14:30:00.000Z · Skopje 1-0 Struga (Second League)
- 2019-03-23T13:30:00.000Z · Skopje 0-0 Struga (Second League)
- 2018-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Skopje 0-1 Struga (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Struga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 2 | Shkendija | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Tikveš | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Sileks | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Štip | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aresimi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -13 | 9 |
| 9 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 10 | Skopje | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Struga win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.