World · UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round17:10

21

Wednesday, 5 August 2026

Cepheus Park · Referee R. Obrenovic · Analysis updated 01:55 UTC

Aarhus vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Aarhus and 2.20 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Sabah FA to Win

49.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aarhus win30%
Draw20%
Sabah FA win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams to score73%

Correct score

  • 1–28.3%
  • 1–17.6%
  • 2–27.1%
  • 2–16.4%
  • 1–36.1%

Why the model likes this

  • Sabah FA away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.70 goals for Aarhus and 2.20 for Sabah FA, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Aarhus

    Sabah FA

    • 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 4-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-05T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.