AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.18 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

AC Milan or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

AC Milan win44%

Draw26%

Atalanta win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Atalanta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for AC Milan and 1.18 for Atalanta, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

AC Milan

Atalanta

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta (Serie A)
2025-10-28T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
2025-04-20T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 0-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
2024-12-06T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
2024-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
2024-01-10T20:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta (Coppa Italia)
2023-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta (Serie A)
2023-02-26T19:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-0 Atalanta (Serie A)
2022-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)
2022-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · AC Milan 2-0 Atalanta (Serie A)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.