Albert Bartlett Stadium · Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Airdrie United vs East Kilbride Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Airdrie United and 1.98 for East Kilbride, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives East Kilbride the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.
Model pick
East Kilbride to Win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Kilbride to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Airdrie United and 1.98 for East Kilbride, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
East Kilbride to Win is the headline pick at 64% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Airdrie United
East Kilbride
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | East Fife | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.