Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Almirante Brown and 0.70 for Ferro Carril Oeste, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Almirante Brown the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Almirante Brown or Draw

73.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Almirante Brown win38%

Draw35%

Ferro Carril Oeste win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals47%

Over 2.5 goals21%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score29%

Correct score

0–020.6%
1–018.2%
0–114.4%
1–112.7%
2–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Almirante Brown home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferro Carril Oeste away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almirante Brown to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 35% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Almirante Brown and 0.70 for Ferro Carril Oeste, a combined 1.58 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Almirante Brown

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Cordoba · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Mitre · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Estudiantes · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs All Boys · 1-1 (D)

Ferro Carril Oeste

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Andes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Godoy Cruz · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Moron · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Colon Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	25	15	4	6	8	49
2	Deportivo Moron	24	13	5	6	17	44
3	Colon Santa Fe	25	11	9	5	13	42
4	Almirante Brown	24	10	8	6	6	38
5	Godoy Cruz	24	10	7	7	6	37
6	Deportivo Madryn	23	9	9	5	8	36
7	CA Estudiantes	25	9	8	8	2	35
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	25	8	10	7	-1	34
9	Los Andes	23	8	9	6	9	33
10	Racing Cordoba	24	8	6	10	-5	30
11	Atletico Mitre	25	6	11	8	-4	29
12	San Miguel	24	6	11	7	-4	29
13	Defensores De Belgrano	24	5	11	8	-5	26
14	All Boys	24	4	12	8	-9	24
15	San Telmo	24	5	8	11	-9	23
16	Central Norte	23	5	8	10	-9	23
17	Chaco For Ever	23	5	7	11	-7	22
18	Acassuso	24	5	7	12	-11	22
1	Tristan Suarez	23	11	9	3	11	42
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	24	12	5	7	6	41
3	Atlanta	24	12	3	9	5	39
4	Midland	24	10	8	6	9	38
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	24	10	7	7	4	37
6	Temperley	24	9	10	5	3	37
7	Deportivo Maipu	25	10	5	10	6	35
8	Atletico DE Rafaela	25	9	8	8	-1	35
9	Quilmes	25	8	8	9	6	32
10	San Martin Tucuman	24	7	10	7	2	31
11	Colegiales	24	8	6	10	-2	30
12	Almagro	25	8	6	11	-8	30
13	Nueva Chicago	23	7	8	8	-2	29
14	Agropecuario	25	7	8	10	-6	29
15	San Martin S.J.	22	7	7	8	0	28
16	Chacarita Juniors	24	7	5	12	-8	26
17	Patronato	24	4	12	8	-8	24
18	Club Atlético Güemes	24	5	5	14	-22	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.