Arlanda vs Gefle IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Arlanda and 0.84 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Arlanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.

Model pick

Arlanda to Win

65.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.06 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arlanda win66%

Draw20%

Gefle IF win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.7%
1–011.3%
2–19.8%
1–19.5%
3–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Arlanda home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arlanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Arlanda and 0.84 for Gefle IF, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Arlanda

2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Piteå · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby Talang · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 6-1 (W)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 2-0 (W)

Gefle IF

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hammarby Talang	17	11	3	3	30	36
2	IF Karlstad	17	11	3	3	15	36
3	Stockholm Internazionale	16	9	3	4	16	30
4	Arlanda	16	8	6	2	9	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	3	28
6	Enköping	16	9	1	6	1	28
7	FBK Karlstad	16	7	4	5	1	25
8	Karlberg	17	7	3	7	3	24
9	Assyriska FF	17	6	5	6	0	23
10	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	-13	20
11	Vasalund	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Sollentuna	17	3	8	6	-9	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	-9	16
14	Järfälla	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Stocksund	17	2	5	10	-7	11
16	Piteå	16	2	4	10	-18	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.