· Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
Arys vs Kaspij Aktau 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Arys and 1.75 for Kaspij Aktau 2, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Kaspij Aktau 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Kaspij Aktau 2 to Win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.6%
Why the model likes this
Arys home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaspij Aktau 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Arys and 1.75 for Kaspij Aktau 2, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Arys
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khan Tengri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tobol 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Karagandy · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turan Turkistan · 0-4 (L)
Kaspij Aktau 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 49 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 46 | 43 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 38 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Astana II | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 26 |
| 8 | Taraz | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -29 | 17 |
| 12 | Arys | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -19 | 14 |
| 13 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -18 | 12 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.