Aşgabat vs Ahal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Aşgabat and 1.50 for Ahal, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Ahal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Ahal to Win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.68 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aşgabat win17%

Draw26%

Ahal win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–117.0%
0–212.8%
1–111.5%
0–011.4%
1–28.6%

Why the model likes this

Aşgabat home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ahal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ahal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 17% / 26% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Aşgabat and 1.50 for Ahal, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Aşgabat

2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altyn Asyr · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-20T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Ahal · 3-4 (L)
2026-06-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arkadag · 1-7 (L)
2026-06-07T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Merw · 5-1 (W)

Ahal

2026-08-07T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Köpetdag Aşgabat · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-20T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Aşgabat · 4-3 (W)
2026-06-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Nebitci · 4-0 (W)
2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şagadam · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merw · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.