Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi · Referee D. Di Marco · Analysis updated 03:50 UTC
Avellino vs Modena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Avellino and 1.32 for Modena, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Modena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Modena or Draw
72.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–28.6%
Why the model likes this
Modena away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Modena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Avellino and 1.32 for Modena, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Avellino
Modena
- 2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Bolzano · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia | 38 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 46 | 82 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 38 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 42 | 81 |
| 3 | Monza | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 76 |
| 4 | Palermo | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 28 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | -1 | 51 |
| 8 | Avellino | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -12 | 49 |
| 9 | Mantova | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 46 |
| 10 | Padova | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -10 | 46 |
| 11 | Cesena | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -11 | 46 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | -5 | 44 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | -13 | 44 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | -15 | 42 |
| 15 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | -7 | 41 |
| 16 | Sudtirol | 38 | 8 | 17 | 13 | -10 | 41 |
| 17 | Bari | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | -22 | 40 |
| 18 | Reggiana | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | -20 | 37 |
| 19 | Spezia | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | -16 | 35 |
| 20 | Pescara | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | -15 | 35 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.