· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC
Bentleigh Greens vs Melbourne City II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Bentleigh Greens and 1.94 for Melbourne City II, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Melbourne City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
Melbourne City II to Win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Melbourne City II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 19% / 22% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Bentleigh Greens and 1.94 for Melbourne City II, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 54%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Melbourne City II to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Bentleigh Greens
Melbourne City II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 51 |
| 2 | Hume City | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 46 |
| 3 | Preston Lions | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 43 |
| 4 | Avondale | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 41 |
| 5 | South Melbourne | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Sunshine Georgies | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 35 |
| 7 | Heidelberg United | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 34 |
| 8 | Dandenong City | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Melbourne City II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 30 |
| 10 | St. Albans Saints | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -14 | 28 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 27 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 21 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -28 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.