Busan I Park vs Gimpo Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Busan I Park and 1.17 for Gimpo Citizen, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Busan I Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Busan I Park to Win

45.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Busan I Park win46%

Draw25%

Gimpo Citizen win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–010.2%
2–19.2%
0–17.9%
2–07.8%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Busan I Park to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Busan I Park and 1.17 for Gimpo Citizen, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Busan I Park to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Busan I Park

Gimpo Citizen

2026-08-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Yongin City · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	21	12	5	4	12	41
2	Suwon City FC	20	10	7	3	15	37
3	Busan I Park	21	11	4	6	8	37
4	Seoul E-Land FC	20	11	4	5	11	37
5	Hwaseong	21	10	6	5	12	36
6	Daegu FC	20	10	5	5	9	35
7	Gimpo Citizen	20	7	9	4	4	30
8	Asan Mugunghwa	20	7	7	6	5	28
9	Gyeongnam FC	21	6	8	7	-1	26
10	Seongnam FC	19	5	8	6	-2	23
11	Yongin City	20	4	10	6	-4	22
12	Cheongju	21	3	13	5	-9	22
13	Paju Citizen	20	6	3	11	-6	21
14	Cheonan City	20	4	8	8	-3	20
15	Ansan Greeners	20	5	4	11	-16	19
16	Jeonnam Dragons	20	2	7	11	-14	13
17	Gimhae City	20	2	6	12	-21	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.