The Recreation Ground · Analysis updated 01:33 UTC
Caersws vs Penrhyncoch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Caersws and 1.34 for Penrhyncoch, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Caersws the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Caersws to Win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
Why the model likes this
Caersws home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caersws to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for Caersws and 1.34 for Penrhyncoch, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Caersws
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Rhyl · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gresford Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mold Alexandra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Denbigh Town · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Buckley Town · 3-2 (W)
Penrhyncoch
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Carmarthen Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Newport City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Baglan Dragons | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Aberystwyth Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | llanelli AFC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Caerphilly Athletic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Porthmadog | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Brickfield Rangers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Guilsfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Rhyl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Mold Alexandra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Caersws | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Ruthin Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Buckley Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.