Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.11 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Santa Clara or Draw

68.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.99 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Casa Pia win32%

Draw30%

Santa Clara win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–113.6%
1–113.5%
0–012.3%
1–012.1%
0–27.6%

Why the model likes this

Casa Pia home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Casa Pia and 1.11 for Santa Clara, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Casa Pia

2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)

Santa Clara

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.