Scotland · Premiership · Championship Group - 3811:30
CelticWW

31

Saturday, 16 May 2026

Celtic Park · Referee D. Robertson · Analysis updated 00:29 UTC

Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Celtic and 1.40 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Celtic or Draw

66.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Celtic win43%
Draw24%
Heart Of Midlothian win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams to score61%

Correct score

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–07.9%
  • 1–27.7%
  • 0–16.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Celtic home form

    11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.63 goals for Celtic and 1.40 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Celtic

  • 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)

Heart Of Midlothian

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Premiership table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Celtic220056
    2ST Mirren220036
    3Motherwell211014
    4Heart Of Midlothian210133
    5Dundee210113
    6ST Johnstone210103
    7Hibernian210103
    8Aberdeen2101-13
    9Rangers2011-11
    10Falkirk2011-21
    11Dundee Utd2011-41
    12Kilmarnock2002-50

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.