Chile · Segunda División · Regular Season - 1420:00

42

Saturday, 11 July 2026

· Analysis updated 23:01 UTC

Concón National vs Santiago City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Concón National and 1.04 for Santiago City, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Concón National the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Concón National to Win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Concón National win56%
Draw23%
Santiago City win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–110.9%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.5%
  • 0–16.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Santiago City away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Concón National to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.82 goals for Concón National and 1.04 for Santiago City, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Concón National

    Santiago City

    • 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Colchagua · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Concón National · 2-4 (L)
    • 2026-06-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Provincial Ovalle · 3-2 (W)
    • 2026-06-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Trasandino · 1-5 (L)
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colina · 1-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Segunda División table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Provincial Osorno126601024
    2Municipal Salamanca12570622
    3Colchagua12642422
    4Concón National12633621
    5Santiago City12552-120
    6Linares Unido12615419
    7Trasandino12534218
    8General Velásquez12516-416
    9Real San Joaquín12345-113
    10Lota Schwager12345-213
    11Colina12336112
    12Deportes Rengo12327-711
    13Santiago Morning12246-510
    14Provincial Ovalle12138-136

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.