Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.45 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Real Madrid to Win

45.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo La Coruna win28%

Draw26%

Real Madrid win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–111.6%
1–29.0%
1–08.6%
0–28.4%

Why the model likes this

Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.45 for Real Madrid, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Deportivo La Coruna

Real Madrid

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.