K-Park Training Academy · Analysis updated 23:45 UTC
East Kilbride vs Queen of the South Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for East Kilbride and 0.77 for Queen of the South, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives East Kilbride the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws roughly 18% of the time.
Model pick
East Kilbride to Win
81.7% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.8%
Why the model likes this
East Kilbride home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates East Kilbride to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for East Kilbride and 0.77 for Queen of the South, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 51%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
East Kilbride
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cove Rangers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs ST Mirren · 3-4 (L)
Queen of the South
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Peterhead | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | East Fife | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.