Southwest University Park · Referee B. Stevis · Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.23 for Phoenix Rising, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives El Paso Locomotive the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
El Paso Locomotive to Win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.9%
Why the model likes this
El Paso Locomotive home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Paso Locomotive to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.23 for Phoenix Rising, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
El Paso Locomotive
- 2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Oakland Roots · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterey Bay · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Tulsa · 0-1 (L)
Phoenix Rising
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 8 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 5 | Lexington | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.