Sportpark De Koerbelt · Analysis updated 00:27 UTC
Excelsior '31 vs Staphorst Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Excelsior '31 and 1.40 for Staphorst, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Excelsior '31 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior '31 to Win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–06.4%
- 2–26.2%
Why the model likes this
Excelsior '31 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Staphorst away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior '31 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Excelsior '31 and 1.40 for Staphorst, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Excelsior '31
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs URK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Harkemase Boys · 0-1 (L)
Staphorst
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dovo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior '31 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hsc 21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ADO '20 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Purmersteijn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hoogeveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ACV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta Nijkerk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sportlust '46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Dovo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Staphorst | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SVZW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Hollandia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | TEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | VV Scherpenzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Eemdijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vvsb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | EVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GOES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.