Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Excursionistas and 0.80 for Deportivo Merlo, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Excursionistas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.

Model pick

Excursionistas to Win

71.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

2.30 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Excursionistas win71%

Draw18%

Deportivo Merlo win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.9%
1–010.3%
2–19.5%
3–09.1%
1–18.3%

Why the model likes this

Excursionistas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Merlo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excursionistas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Excursionistas and 0.80 for Deportivo Merlo, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Excursionistas

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Laferrere · 5-3 (W)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brown DE Adrogue · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Armenio · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flandria · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Quilmes · 0-0 (D)

Deportivo Merlo

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Camioneros · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Italiano · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Burzaco · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa San Carlos · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liniers · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B Metropolitana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	22	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	Deportivo Camioneros	30	15	10	5	17	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	17	55
5	Arsenal Sarandi	30	14	11	5	17	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	14	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	2	45
8	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	-3	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	-1	41
10	Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	2	40
11	Argentino de Merlo	30	10	9	11	0	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	-12	38
13	San Martín Burzaco	30	8	13	9	-2	37
14	Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	1	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	-3	34
16	Liniers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
17	Brown DE Adrogue	30	7	10	13	-12	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	-7	29
19	Flandria	30	7	8	15	-13	29
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	-10	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	-11	26
22	Ituzaingó	30	1	10	19	-28	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.