Ferencvarosi TC vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 2.00 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Real Madrid to Win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ferencvarosi TC win20%

Draw21%

Real Madrid win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–19.9%
1–29.9%
0–19.2%
0–29.2%
1–36.6%

Why the model likes this

Ferencvarosi TC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 2.00 for Real Madrid, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Ferencvarosi TC

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-05T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasas · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)

Real Madrid

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.