Panasonic Stadium Suita · Referee A. Ikeuchi · Analysis updated 02:25 UTC
Gamba Osaka vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.99 expected goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.72 for Urawa, a combined total of 4.71. That distribution gives Gamba Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.
Model pick
Gamba Osaka to Win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
2.99 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–25.9%
- 4–15.2%
Why the model likes this
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gamba Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.99 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.72 for Urawa, a combined 4.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Recent form
Gamba Osaka
Urawa
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | V-varen Nagasaki | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kawasaki Frontale | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Mito Hollyhock | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Tokyo Verdy | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Tokyo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Urawa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.