Gimhae Sports Complex · Referee W. Myeong-Hee · Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Gimhae City vs Gimpo Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Gimhae City and 1.53 for Gimpo Citizen, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Gimpo Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Gimpo Citizen to Win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Why the model likes this
Gimhae City home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gimpo Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 21% / 26% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Gimhae City and 1.53 for Gimpo Citizen, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Gimhae City
- 2026-08-15T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Suwon Bluewings · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Seongnam FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 1-1 (D)
Gimpo Citizen
- 2026-08-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Yongin City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | Busan I Park | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 37 |
| 4 | Seoul E-Land FC | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 36 |
| 6 | Daegu FC | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Gimpo Citizen | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Asan Mugunghwa | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 10 | Seongnam FC | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 | Yongin City | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Cheongju | 21 | 3 | 13 | 5 | -9 | 22 |
| 13 | Paju Citizen | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 21 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | -3 | 20 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | -21 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.