Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Gremio and 1.23 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Paranaense or Draw

71.2% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.96 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gremio win29%

Draw29%

Atletico Paranaense win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–113.8%
1–113.2%
0–011.2%
1–010.8%
0–28.4%

Why the model likes this

Gremio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Paranaense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Gremio and 1.23 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Gremio

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-1 (D)

Atletico Paranaense

2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.