Francisco Novelletto Neto · Analysis updated 00:44 UTC
Gremio W vs Corinthians W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gremio W and 1.77 for Corinthians W, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Corinthians W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.
Model pick
Corinthians W to Win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.5%
Why the model likes this
Corinthians W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Gremio W and 1.77 for Corinthians W, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Gremio W
Corinthians W
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória BA W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mixto W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro W · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasileiro Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians W | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 37 |
| 2 | São Paulo W | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Palmeiras W | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 32 |
| 4 | Bahia W | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Ferroviaria W | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 6 | Fluminense W | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Gremio W | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 8 | Internacional RS W | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 24 |
| 9 | Cruzeiro W | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | Flamengo W | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino W | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 20 |
| 12 | Santos W | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 | Atlético Mineiro W | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | Mixto W | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -15 | 12 |
| 15 | Juventude W | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 | America Mineiro W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -24 | 7 |
| 17 | Vitória BA W | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | -25 | 7 |
| 18 | Botafogo W | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.