Germany · Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3113:00

11

Sunday, 12 April 2026

Rasenplatz TuS Hiltrup · Analysis updated 04:36 UTC

Hiltrup vs Vreden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hiltrup and 1.57 for Vreden, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Vreden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Vreden to Win

45.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Hiltrup win29%
Draw25%
Vreden win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–111.8%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 1–29.3%
  • 0–27.7%
  • 1–07.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Vreden away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Vreden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.21 goals for Hiltrup and 1.57 for Vreden, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Hiltrup

    Vreden

    • 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erkenschwick · 3-0 (W)
    • 2026-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 0-2 (L)
    • 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Westfalia Rhynern · 0-4 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Oberliga - Westfalen table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Eintracht Rheine220036
    2Preußen Münster II110033
    3Maaslingen110023
    4Vreden110023
    5Westfalia Kinderhaus110023
    6Verl II110013
    7Sprockhovel101001
    8Ennepetal101001
    9Erkenschwick101001
    10Gievenbeck101001
    11TuS Hordel101001
    12Arminia II2011-11
    13SpVgg Herne Horsthausen1001-10
    14Victoria Clarholz1001-20
    15ASC Dortmund1001-20
    16Hiltrup1001-20
    17Lippstadt 081001-20
    18Schermbeck1001-30

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.