Horsham vs Maidstone Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Horsham and 1.15 for Maidstone Utd, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Maidstone Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.

Model pick

Maidstone Utd or Draw

64.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Horsham win36%

Draw28%

Maidstone Utd win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–111.6%
1–011.5%
0–010.0%
1–27.7%

Why the model likes this

Horsham home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maidstone Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Horsham and 1.15 for Maidstone Utd, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Horsham

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salisbury · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Town · 3-0 (W)

Maidstone Utd

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weston-super-Mare	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AFC Totton	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Salisbury	2	1	1	0	5	4
5	Hemel Hempstead Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Truro City	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Torquay	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Folkestone Invicta	1	1	0	0	4	3
9	Tonbridge Angels	2	1	0	1	3	3
10	Maidstone Utd	2	1	0	1	2	3
11	Billericay Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Dover	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Farnborough	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Braintree	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Horsham	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	Chelmsford City	2	0	2	0	0	2
17	Dorking Wanderers	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Maidenhead	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Slough Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Farnham Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Chesham United	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Walton & Hersham	2	0	0	2	-7	0
24	Hampton & Richmond	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.