Briotech Arena · Analysis updated 00:27 UTC
HPS vs Reipas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for HPS and 2.06 for Reipas, a combined total of 4.57. That distribution gives HPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
HPS to Win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.7%
- 3–25.8%
- 3–15.6%
- 1–25.5%
Why the model likes this
HPS home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 19% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for HPS and 2.06 for Reipas, a combined 4.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 80%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Recent form
HPS
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Plaani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs PPJ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HIFK Helsinki · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlantis · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MyPa · 5-2 (W)
Reipas
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiffen | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 2 | PEPO | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 31 |
| 3 | Atlantis | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | HIFK Helsinki | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| 5 | HPS | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | PPJ | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | Reipas | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | PuiU Helsinki | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 16 |
| 9 | MyPa | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -20 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Plaani | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -24 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.