Independiente F.b.c. vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.29 for Deportivo Capiata, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Independiente F.b.c. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Independiente F.b.c. to Win

47.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Independiente F.b.c. win48%

Draw24%

Deportivo Capiata win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.4%
1–08.5%
2–07.3%
1–27.0%

Why the model likes this

Independiente F.b.c. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente F.b.c. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.29 for Deportivo Capiata, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Independiente F.b.c.

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Resistencia · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SOL DE America · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)

Deportivo Capiata

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	12 de Junio VH	19	12	4	3	12	40
2	General Caballero	18	11	3	4	14	36
3	Benjamín Aceval	19	10	5	4	11	35
4	Deportivo Santani	18	10	3	5	11	33
5	SOL DE America	19	6	11	2	8	29
6	Independiente F.b.c.	19	6	8	5	2	26
7	Resistencia	18	6	7	5	-1	25
8	Sportivo Carapeguá	18	7	4	7	-7	25
9	Atlético Tembetary	18	6	5	7	0	23
10	Deportivo Capiata	18	5	8	5	-1	23
11	Guairena FC	19	6	5	8	-4	23
12	Fernando De La Mora	19	6	5	8	-7	23
13	Paraguari AC	19	5	5	9	-5	20
14	Tacuary	18	3	9	6	-5	18
15	Encarnación	19	3	3	13	-12	12
16	3 de Noviembre	18	0	7	11	-16	7

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.