· Analysis updated 01:32 UTC
Karlshamn vs Lilla Torg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Karlshamn and 1.55 for Lilla Torg, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Lilla Torg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Lilla Torg or Draw
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Why the model likes this
Karlshamn home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lilla Torg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Karlshamn and 1.55 for Lilla Torg, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Karlshamn
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Trelleborg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oskarshamns AIK · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Räppe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Linero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlskrona · 1-3 (L)
Lilla Torg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Södra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 39 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 30 |
| 3 | Berga | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | IFK Trelleborg | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 26 |
| 6 | Linero | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Österlen | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 24 |
| 8 | Växjö Norra | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 | Staffanstorp United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Torns | 17 | 6 | 0 | 11 | -21 | 18 |
| 12 | Sölvesborg | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Räppe | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 13 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 17 | 2 | 2 | 13 | -24 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.