Kashima vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Kashima and 2.00 for Urawa, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Kashima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.

Model pick

Kashima to Win

66.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

3.50 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kashima win66%

Draw15%

Urawa win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

34%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

3–15.8%
3–25.8%
4–15.1%
4–25.1%
2–15.0%

Why the model likes this

Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 15% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Kashima and 2.00 for Urawa, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 83%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Kashima

Urawa

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	8	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Kashima	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	V-varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Shimizu S-pulse	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Urawa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.