· Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Kostinbrod vs Slavia Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kostinbrod and 1.09 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Kostinbrod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Kostinbrod or Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kostinbrod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Kostinbrod and 1.09 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Kostinbrod or Draw is the headline pick at 69% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Kostinbrod
Slavia Sofia II
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Septemvri Simitli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Septemvri Sofia II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Bansko | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Strumska Slava | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Belasitsa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Levski Sofia II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Botev Ihtiman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Kostinbrod | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Kyustendil | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Oborishte | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia III | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Natsional Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Chavdar Etropole | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Slivnishki geroy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Balkan Botevgrad | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.