Stadio Via del Mare · Analysis updated 04:24 UTC
Lecce vs Cagliari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lecce and 1.06 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Cagliari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.
Model pick
Cagliari or Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–27.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cagliari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Lecce and 1.06 for Cagliari, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Cagliari or Draw is the headline pick at 67% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Lecce
Cagliari
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.