MOSiR · Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Lechia Zielona Góra vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 1.29 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Lechia Zielona Góra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.
Model pick
Lechia Zielona Góra to Win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–06.1%
- 1–16.1%
Why the model likes this
Olimpia Grudziądz away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Zielona Góra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for Lechia Zielona Góra and 1.29 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Lechia Zielona Góra
Olimpia Grudziądz
- 2026-08-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avia Świdnik | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Znicz Pruszków | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Tychy 71 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Hutnik Kraków | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Górnik Łęczna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Sokół Kleczew | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Resovia Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Świt Skolwin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.