Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie · Referee Karol Arys, Poland · Analysis updated 03:54 UTC
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa to Win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 3–16.9%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 55%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Legia Warszawa to Win is the headline pick at 62% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
- 2026-08-15T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.